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Assessing the classification performance of the mean platelet volume (MPV) in a cardiovascular risk prediction model

The purpose of this study was to compare the properties of a number of novel and a traditional measure to evaluate the predictive performance of a new marker. For that purpose, we analyzed data, which contains age, gender, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and smoking and total cholesterol/high density lipoprotein as the clinical risk factors for the initial model, obtained from 293 patients having a risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Afterwards, the mean platelet volume (MPV) was added to this initial model as a new prognostic marker. The results showed that the addition of MPV improved the model performance; the AUC increased from 0.770 to 0.813 (p=0.011) Then, in order to assess the relative classification power of the MPV to predict CAD events, the data was analyzed by logistic models and risk reclassification indices such as net reclassification improvement index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI). NRI was found to be 0.103 (p=0.004) and IDI was found to be 0.07 (p=0.003). As a result, the model including the mentioned clinical risk factors and the MPV performed better than that without MPV and also, the ratio of the correctly classified individuals after the addition of MPV increased more than the increase of the AUC.

Author(s): Özlem Güllü, Mustafa Agah Tekindal, Can Ates, Berkay Ekici, Yasemin Yavuz